RobotRisk Autonomous Systems Incident & Risk Register
RobotRisk › Defense / space
Industry

Defense / space

123 tracked companies; 16 companies with incident history, 21 unique documented incidents. Ranked by RobotRisk index; tick marks the industry median across companies with documented incidents, where nonzero. All industries.

27.4/100Median index across the 16 Defense / space companies with incident history (123 tracked, 107 with none)
16Companies with incident history
21Unique documented incidents
S4Highest severity on file

Analyst brief

The category's sole entity, Starfish Space, is represented by one severity-4 event: an uncontrolled spin during a spacecraft docking test mission resulting in mission loss. The dominant failure mode on record is a test-mission control failure rather than an operational-asset or crewed-mission incident. With only one entity and one event, the data shows complete concentration in a single company and a single test-phase failure. The record is press-driven, based on reporting of the test mission rather than a regulatory finding.

By submitting you agree to the privacy policy. Alerts start immediately; every email has an unsubscribe link. Filter or search the page and the alert follows your selection.

Company risk ranking

Index 0-100: each documented incident is weighted by severity and by how well-sourced it is, discounted as it ages (half its weight every 3 years), then summed per company and scaled on a log curve so the highest-risk company worldwide is 100. Rank in industry: position among companies in the same industry that have at least one documented incident. Band groups the index: Critical (75+), High (45-74), Elevated (15-44), Low (under 15 with at least one incident); None documented means no public incident was found, which is not proof of safety.

CompanyRobotRisk index (0-100)Rank in industryBandIncidents
Katalyst Space Technologies
50.8
 1 of 16 High 2
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems
48.8
 2 of 16 High 2
Baykar
43.7
 3 of 16 Elevated 2
JAXA
40.4
 4 of 16 Elevated 1
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
38.2
 5 of 16 Elevated 1
Turkish Aerospace Industries
34.2
 6 of 16 Elevated 1
Tekever
32.1
 7 of 16 Elevated 2
Space Machines Company
27.6
 8 of 16 Elevated 1
Momentus
27.1
 9 of 16 Elevated 2
Starfish Space
26.9
 10 of 16 Elevated 1
STARK Defence
23.5
 11 of 16 Elevated 1
AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China)
22.2
 12 of 16 Elevated 1
STM (Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik)
20.4
 13 of 16 Elevated 1
Northrop Grumman
14.9
 14 of 16 Low 1
Safran
8.8
 16 of 16 Low 1
Astroscale
8.8
 15 of 16 Low 1

Recent incidents

SevDateCompanyTypeLocationIncidentSource
S419 Aug 2026Katalyst Space Technologies mission-loss Earth orbitNASA and Katalyst end Swift Observatory rescue mission after spacecraft failure · 1 spacecraft (Link) Bloomberg
S413 Aug 2026General Atomics Aeronautical Systems mission-loss —US lost roughly 25% of MQ-9 Reaper drone fleet during Iran war · 25% of US Reaper fleet (~45 aircraft) lost The Washington Post / Je
S404 Aug 2026Kratos Defense & Security Solutions crash Dugway Proving Ground, UT, USAXQ-58 Valkyrie crashes at Dugway Proving Ground, flights paused · 1 aircraft TWZ
S403 Aug 2026Tekever mission-loss Russia-Ukraine borderTekever AR3 StormShroud UAV shot down and recovered by Russian forces · 1 UAV (AR3 StormShroud) Euronews
S426 Jul 2026Baykar crash —Bayraktar Akıncı shot down over Yemen (first confirmed combat loss) Defence Security Asia
S4~Jul 2026Katalyst Space Technologies malfunction —Attitude control and reaction wheel failures leave LINK spacecraft spinning uncontrolled, forcing NASA to abandon Swift rescue/reboost · LINK servicing spacecraft (Swift Rescue Mission) Ars Technica
S422 Dec 2025JAXA mission-loss JapanJapanese H3 rocket fails during launch of navigation satellite Space.com / Asahi
S3~Oct 2025STARK Defence malfunction —Stark Defence's Virtus loitering munition fails all four strikes in military trials · 4 of 4 trial strikes failed DroneXL
S216 Sep 2025Northrop Grumman disruption —NASA, Northrop Grumman postpone Cygnus XL arrival to ISS following propulsion issue · Cygnus XL cargo mission Google News aggregated
S431 Aug 2025General Atomics Aeronautical Systems crash —MQ-9 Reaper lost in Middle East due to chafed wire · 1 aircraft Air & Space Forces Magaz
S4~Jun 2025Turkish Aerospace Industries crash Konya, TurkeyTAI Anka-3 UCAV prototype lost in hard-landing crash near Konya Aviation Week / Militarn
S4~Jan 2025Baykar crash LibyaBayraktar Akıncı drone crashes in Libya Military Africa
S412 Dec 2024AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China) crash ChinaYilong-2H drone crashes into Olympic Sports Center in Jingzhou, China Militarnyi
S412 Jun 2023Starfish Space mission-loss —Spinning spacecraft adds unwelcome twist to Starfish Space's docking test mission · 1 spacecraft (Otter Pup / LEO Pathfinder) GeekWire
S314 Jun 2022Momentus malfunction —Momentus orbital transfer vehicle suffers power problem after launch · 1 vehicle (Vigoride) Spaceflight Now
S2~Jan 2022Astroscale malfunction —Astroscale pauses debris-removal demo following anomaly SpaceNews
S313 Jul 2021Momentus regulatory —Stable Road and Momentus reach SEC settlement over false claims SpaceNews
S408 Mar 2021STM (Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik) regulatory LibyaUN report: STM Kargu-2 loitering munition may have autonomously engaged targets in Libya NPR / New York Times
S329 Dec 2020Tekever malfunction Kent, England, UKAAIB report: Tekever AR5 Evolution Mk 2 double engine shutdown near Lydd, Kent GOV.UK / AAIB
S3~Dec 2019Safran crash —Safran works to correct Patroller UAV after December crash FlightGlobal
S4not documentedSpace Machines Company mission-loss —Optimus-1 orbital servicing satellite lost after communications failure · Optimus-1 orbital servicing satellite psnews.com.au

Explore combinations

Pre-built views of these incidents by a second dimension.

S3 and above (19)S4 and above (14)
Also from Critical Systems Analysis: CSA - functional safety engineering · Company directory · FSTalent - functional safety jobs